Dr. Castillo-Chavez speaks to UC Davis

Dr. Castillo-Chavez spoke to UC Davis during a lecture series called "Issues in Modern Biology."  His talk, entitled "The Complexity of Epidemics and the Simplicity of Epidemiological Theory: with examples from the H1N1 ongoing pandemic," is sponsored by the College of Biological Sciences, Storer Life Sciences Endowment . 

Excerpt:
"Major Issues in Modern Biology The Complexity of Epidemics and the Simplicity of Epidemiological Theory Disease dynamics are intimately connected to biological, environmental and social processes that take place at multiple scales and over various levels of social and biological organization. Epidemics can bring devastation and  fear. We live in a global village. In fact, we are all connected to each other. Hence, epidemic outbreaks, like the recent H1N1 influenza outbreak in Mexico become instant global threats. The speed and variability in the quality of public information and the resulting intervention policies aimed at disrupting the cohesiveness of social networks through measures like “local social distancing,” travel restrictions, closing of schools and public places, mean that the dynamics of disease transmission now live in a rapidly changing highly connected adaptive complex social landscape.  A fundamental challenge, then, is to  find ways of integrating and grasping the processes and patterns that take place at key temporal scales and relevant levels of social and biological organization and use them to identify timely and effective intervention strategies. Despite the myriad of complexities associated with disease dynamics, macroscopic epidemic patterns emerge but finding effective ways of making use of this knowledge remain. How do we generate useful paradigms with the limitations inherent in reported epidemiological data or with the challenges posed by unreported disease data?  Further,  diseases experiencing rapid evolutionary changes, like HIV or influenza,  pose a tremendous threat to the viability of  our limited drug supply. The evolution of resistance to antibiotics or antivirals, is one of the most important sustainability challenges that we face today, a challenge that must be central to the design and implementation of global public health policies. Will evolutionary changes at lower levels of organization, like cross-immunity, alter dramatically the epidemiological landscape at the population level? Are secondary severe epidemic waves likely? How can we identify and make use of anomalies in emerging epidemic patterns? In this lecture I will address some of these challenges in a historical context starting with the work of physicians-theoreticians like Bernoulli, Ross, Kermack and McKendrick. The lecture will conclude with examples from the H1N1 ongoing pandemic."